Nigeria could add 83,000 barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity through seven new modular refineries in 2027, according to an industry forecast presented in Lagos on October 28, as rising fuel exports transform the country’s petroleum trade despite persistent domestic supply constraints.
George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media told the OTL Africa Downstream Conference that the proposed facilities would increase modular refining capacity from 32,000 to 115,000 bpd, a 259% expansion. However, operators and commissioning schedules remain undisclosed.
The changing fuel balance is already evident. September data from Nigeria’s downstream petroleum regulator, NMDPRA, show Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported 54.63 million litres of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel daily, up 37% from August, against domestic deliveries of 39.98 million litres. Aviation fuel accounted for 23.25 million litres of exports, while petrol deliveries to the domestic market still exceeded petrol exports.
Dangote produced 47.22 million litres of petrol daily, exceeding reported national consumption of 44.4 million litres. Yet only 28.5 million litres entered the domestic market, while 15.47 million litres were exported and 3.25 million litres added to refinery inventories.
Greater production has not eliminated import dependence. Nigeria continued importing 10.2 million litres of petrol daily in September. Total domestic and imported receipts reached 38.7 million litres against consumption of 44.4 million litres, a difference partly affected by inventory movements. National petrol stocks covered 23.9 days of demand, below the regulator’s 30-day benchmark.
International markets are absorbing growing Nigerian output. The US Energy Information Administration reported that seaborne petroleum-product exports reached 350,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 46,000 bpd in 2023. Europe received 130,000 bpd and other African markets nearly 120,000 bpd.
Europe is becoming an important buyer of Nigerian aviation fuel and diesel while losing traditional gasoline export opportunities. Reuters estimated that Dangote supplied 80,000 bpd of aviation fuel to Europe during the second quarter.
Regional demand is also expanding. Cameroon signed a refined-fuel supply agreement with Dangote and MRS Oil & Gas on October 22, although delivery volumes remain undisclosed.
Crude availability remains a critical constraint. Nigeria’s upstream regulator reported that domestic refinery deliveries fulfilled 76.2% of allocated crude and condensate volumes in the third quarter, compared with 97.4% in the second. Smaller refiners also face maintenance and feedstock limitations.
The proposed modular facilities could diversify domestic supply and strengthen regional exports, but their actual contribution will depend on crude availability, utilisation rates, product yields and competitive pricing.
Nigeria is gaining the refining capacity to serve domestic and international markets simultaneously. Its decisive economic test is converting that capacity into reliable, affordable local supplies while sustaining profitable exports to Africa and Europe.
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