Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser has warned that rebuilding global crude and refined-fuel inventories depleted during the current Middle East supply disruption could take up to two years, even after shipping conditions and regional exports normalise.
Nasser said the market has already absorbed a major inventory draw as governments, refiners and traders compensated for disrupted supply. Replenishing those stocks while continuing to meet normal consumption could itself create an additional layer of oil demand, extending market tightness beyond the immediate geopolitical crisis.
The warning points to a potentially important second phase in the energy shock. Emergency stock releases can moderate short-term shortages, but every barrel drawn today increases the volume eventually required to rebuild strategic and commercial reserves.
The pressure is particularly acute in refined products. Diesel and other middle distillates remain vulnerable because constrained refinery capacity and disrupted Gulf trade flows cannot be replaced as quickly as crude inventories.
For Egypt, the implications extend beyond headline oil prices. A prolonged period of elevated crude and diesel costs would increase foreign-currency requirements for energy imports, add pressure to the subsidy bill and transmit higher costs through transport, industry and logistics.
The key risk is therefore no longer limited to restoring Gulf supply. Even after the immediate disruption eases, the global race to replenish inventories could keep energy markets structurally tight well into 2027 and potentially beyond.
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