Artificial intelligence could expand US economic output to $44.4 trillion by 2030 under an extreme scenario of technological advancement, according to Anthropic, highlighting the technology’s potential to accelerate growth while disrupting employment and income distribution.
Speaking at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on 17 October, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said rapidly improving AI capabilities could transform scientific research, industrial productivity and economic activity. He urged governments to strengthen international cooperation and establish safeguards before technological advances outpace regulatory oversight.
Anthropic’s economic model, published in September, outlines three possible outcomes for US GDP in 2030: $34.1 trillion under modest AI adoption, $36.3 trillion with substantial transformation and $44.4 trillion in an extreme scenario. The figures are calculated at constant 2025 prices, with the highest estimate representing a hypothetical outcome rather than a central forecast.
The extreme scenario assumes AI systems autonomously perform most knowledge-based tasks, potentially accelerating annual economic growth to 15%. However, the same model indicates that widespread automation could increase unemployment substantially and reduce labour’s share of national income from approximately 60% to 45.2%.
AI could accelerate drug discovery, engineering, software development and other knowledge-intensive industries while creating new markets and investment opportunities. Yet these gains depend on technological reliability, business adoption and adequate infrastructure.
The central economic challenge is whether unprecedented productivity gains can translate into broadly shared prosperity rather than greater concentration of income and wealth.
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