Egypt plans to bring five natural gas wells onstream in October, adding about 100mn cubic feet per day as Cairo accelerates upstream investment to counter a steep decline in domestic production and reduce its dependence on imported LNG.
The onshore and offshore wells will require combined investment of about $95mn, according to Asharq Business, citing an Egyptian government official.
The largest contribution is expected from Eni’s Zohr field in the Mediterranean, where a new well is projected to add 60mn cubic feet per day (mmcf/d). Apache is expected to contribute 20mmcf/d from two Western Desert wells, while Harbour Energy and Cheiron Energy are expected to add 12mmcf/d and 8 mmcf/d respectively.
Together, the additions would provide 100 mmcf/d, or 0.1bn cubic feet per day.
New Supply Versus Natural Decline
Egypt’s immediate challenge is adding production faster than mature fields decline.
An industry estimate cited by local media puts natural decline across existing fields at about 120mmcf/d a month. If accurate, the five October wells would replace roughly 83 percent of one month’s depletion, illustrating the scale of the challenge before new drilling can generate sustained net production growth.
The decline has been substantial. Egyptian gas production exceeded 6bn cubic feet per day in early 2021 but had fallen to about 3.5bcf/d by April 2025, according to figures reported by Reuters.
Against production at that scale, October’s proposed 100 mmcf/d addition is significant at the margin but insufficient by itself to restore Egypt’s previous gas balance.
Zohr Remains Central
The expected 60mmcf/d contribution from Zohr represents three-fifths of October’s planned increase, underscoring the Mediterranean field’s continuing importance to Egypt’s gas supply.
Zohr transformed the country’s energy position after production began in 2017, helping Egypt regain gas self-sufficiency. But declining production from Zohr and other mature fields subsequently contributed to a widening gap between domestic supply and consumption.
Egypt and its partners are seeking to maximise recovery from existing reservoirs while accelerating development around established infrastructure.
LNG Fills the Gap
Declining domestic supply has pushed Egypt back into the international LNG market, exposing its energy system to global prices, shipping constraints and geopolitical disruption.
Egypt imported about 630,000 tonnes of LNG in July, down from a record 1.06mn tonnes in June, according to shipping data reported by Reuters. S&P Global Energy data also showed Egypt receiving 21 US LNG cargoes in July, highlighting the growing role of Atlantic supply in meeting domestic requirements.
The vulnerability of that dependence was highlighted in late July when a drone attack caused fires involving the Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit and the GasLog Salem at Damietta port. Egypt retained alternative LNG receiving capacity at Ain Sokhna and regional pipeline connections, but the disruption demonstrated the strategic value of additional domestic production.
Investment Returns to the Upstream Sector
The five October wells are part of a broader attempt to revive exploration and development after several years of weaker upstream investment.
Egypt cleared $6.1bn in accumulated arrears to foreign oil and gas companies in June, removing one of the principal constraints that had discouraged international producers from committing additional capital.
The government has since announced more than $19bn in investment commitments from international energy companies over three years, according to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly. The commitments include $8bn from Eni, $5bn from BP, $4bn from Apache and $2bn from the UAE’s XRG.
Egypt is also targeting 160 new oil and gas wells during the current fiscal year, backed by at least $7.2bn in planned foreign investment, as it seeks to translate improved commercial conditions into higher production.
The trajectory is already different in crude oil, where production has risen above 540,000 barrels per day, its highest level in nearly two years, according to government figures. Gas remains the most difficult part of Egypt’s energy equation because of the scale of the decline and the country’s growing requirement for imported supply.
The Test Is Net Production
The October wells will not close Egypt’s gas deficit. At their expected initial rate, they would provide about 3bn cubic feet of additional gas a month if production is sustained.
The more important test is whether Egypt’s expanding drilling programme can push new supply consistently above natural depletion. Several projects under development could add larger volumes: Shell’s West Mina field, for example, is scheduled to begin production towards the end of 2026 with an expected 160mmcf/d of gas.
That pipeline provides grounds for a potential recovery, but discoveries, drilling targets and initial production rates will matter only if they translate into sustained net gains across the system.
Whether new supply can consistently outrun depletion will ultimately determine how quickly Egypt can reduce its exposure to costly LNG imports — and the foreign currency required to pay for them.
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