Egypt is set to double its crude oil and petroleum-product import bill to about $9bn in the fourth quarter of 2026 as it sharply increases imported feedstock to run domestic refineries at higher capacity.
The country plans to import about 7mn barrels of crude a month during October-December, equivalent to roughly 230,000 barrels a day, or 21mn barrels over the quarter. That represents a 250% increase from 6mn barrels in the same period of 2025, according to preliminary estimates from a government official cited by Asharq Bloomberg.
Total spending on crude and petroleum products is expected to average about $3bn a month, twice the roughly $1.5bn monthly level recorded a year earlier. The eventual bill will remain sensitive to international crude and product prices, freight costs and procurement timing.
The increase is uneven across the fuel mix. The same official said diesel imports are expected to fall 32% year on year to 1.26mn tonnes during the quarter, while gasoline imports are projected to surge 157% to 2.16mn tonnes from 840,000 tonnes. LPG imports are expected to remain broadly unchanged at 1.26mn tonnes.
The shift reflects Cairo’s effort to maximise domestic refining capacity rather than rely as heavily on imported finished products. Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi has said refinery utilisation has risen from about 66% to around 80%, supported by greater crude availability and improved plant efficiency.
The fall in diesel imports suggests higher domestic processing is reducing external dependence in some product categories. But the sharp increase in gasoline purchases shows that greater refinery throughput has not eliminated Egypt’s need for substantial finished-product imports. Available data do not establish whether the rise principally reflects demand growth, refinery yields, inventory requirements or precautionary procurement.
The strategy is also becoming more expensive. Brent has been trading above $100 a barrel, more than one-third above the approximately $75 oil-price assumption underpinning Egypt’s FY2026/27 budget. The pound, meanwhile, is around EGP52 to the dollar, raising the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated crude and petroleum-product imports.
Higher international costs must ultimately be absorbed through domestic fuel prices, EGPC finances, fiscal buffers or a combination of the three.
That pressure is increasingly reaching consumers. Official pump prices currently stand at EGP20.75 a litre for 80-octane gasoline, EGP22.25 for 92-octane and EGP24 for 95-octane, following the exceptional March increase.
Analyst expectations are increasingly centred on another Q4 adjustment. HC Securities expects gasoline and diesel prices to rise by about 10% in October, while estimates from other economists and investment banks suggest a broader 10%-15% range if elevated oil prices and exchange-rate pressures persist.
A 10% increase would take 92-octane gasoline from EGP 22.25 to roughly EGP24.50 a litre after applying the pricing mechanism’s 25-piaster rounding convention. The eventual price remains a government decision and could differ across products.
Egypt’s automatic fuel-pricing mechanism normally caps formula-generated quarterly changes at 10% in either direction, with unrecovered cost increases carried into subsequent periods through catch-up adjustments. The formula uses previous-quarter oil prices and exchange rates rather than the prevailing spot Brent price, meaning crude above $100 does not mechanically translate into an equivalent percentage increase at the pump. Exceptional government adjustments can nevertheless exceed the normal formula-based threshold when cost-recovery pressures intensify.
The broader inflation impact will depend heavily on whether diesel prices are also increased because of its importance to freight, public transport and distribution. HC Securities forecasts monthly headline inflation of about 2.1% in October, partly reflecting its assumption of a 10% fuel-price increase.
The fiscal stakes are equally significant. The IMF identifies the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation as the main source of fiscal risk, while the FY2026/27 budget includes contingency buffers partly intended to absorb oil prices above the $75 benchmark.
If higher international costs are not passed through to consumers, they instead increase pressure on EGPC and the state budget, complicating the government’s effort to preserve energy cost recovery without reigniting broader inflation.
Egypt’s refinery strategy should therefore ultimately be judged in dollars rather than tonnes. Replacing imported finished fuel with products refined domestically from imported crude reduces the country’s external burden only if the combined cost of crude acquisition, processing, freight and financing remains below the value of the finished-product imports avoided.
The key Q4 test is whether higher domestic refinery throughput can reduce Egypt’s finished-product import bill quickly enough to offset the rising dollar cost of imported crude — and how much of that higher external cost is ultimately passed on to consumers. Current analyst expectations point to an October fuel-price increase of around 10%, with 10%-15% representing the principal risk range if oil and currency pressures persist.
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