Middle East crude exports have almost fully recovered from wartime disruption, but the region’s energy system remains far from normal as refined fuels and LNG lag sharply behind.
JPMorgan estimates regional crude shipments at about 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, reflecting a rapid restoration of oil flows through both the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes.
Saudi Arabia has been central to the rebound. The Kingdom has increased shipments through Hormuz while restoring flows through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu after repairs following September drone strikes. JPMorgan estimates Hormuz oil traffic at nearly 13 million bpd, while Saudi pipeline flows have recovered to at least 3.5 million bpd.
The headline recovery, however, conceals a widening split across energy markets.
Regional exports of refined products such as diesel and gasoline remain at only about 3 million bpd, or 58% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan. LNG is weaker still. Qatar-linked tanker movements have resumed cautiously, but exports remain constrained by damaged infrastructure, shipping disruption and force-majeure commitments.
Around 12.8 million tonnes a year of Qatari LNG capacity remains offline, limiting the scope for a rapid return to normal gas supply.
The market has therefore moved from an acute crude shortage towards a more complex downstream and gas-supply constraint.
Oil availability has recovered faster than regional energy security — keeping geopolitical risk embedded in prices despite the return of most crude volumes.
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